Hello friends!
I also wish I am completely wrong on the H1N1, and completely wrong on the velocity thing as well... but than you have an A+B+C conjecture that leaves you with a minimal probability for otherwise. Kinda sad!
From my early research, H1N1 strikes in three main fatality waves. The point being is that the highest casualities are aged between 14 and 44 years old because of the over reaction of one's strong imunesystem to the Influenza vírus. Therefore, a normal death rate of 3% on the total H1N1 infected population should be twice to three times larger in the infected young adults cohort. Now, about 30% of the total world population should get infected by the H1N1 before its self burn out by second half 2010. By now you can do some math on it and do the appropriate effort investment to your safety.
In the past, each of the main and last two strikes lasted about 6-8 weeks in length before retracing back along the 1918-1919 period. I would guess economic activity will be restricted to government, hospitals and funeral activities during those periods. So, let's say about 40% of total activity is on during these 2 x 7 weeks periods and that each week of paralised activity means some 2% of the yearly GDP. We should arrive to some 16% anualized GDP contraction on the H1N1 alone. Keeping the current approx. 7% annualized rate of GDP contraction, however, it would still leave the Money Velocity some 12% above where it should be before a bounce is probable by mid 2010. Whatever happens, some improvement should start by second half 2010.
We will be in touch!
Take care my friend,
Luis
I also wish I am completely wrong on the H1N1, and completely wrong on the velocity thing as well... but than you have an A+B+C conjecture that leaves you with a minimal probability for otherwise. Kinda sad!
From my early research, H1N1 strikes in three main fatality waves. The point being is that the highest casualities are aged between 14 and 44 years old because of the over reaction of one's strong imunesystem to the Influenza vírus. Therefore, a normal death rate of 3% on the total H1N1 infected population should be twice to three times larger in the infected young adults cohort. Now, about 30% of the total world population should get infected by the H1N1 before its self burn out by second half 2010. By now you can do some math on it and do the appropriate effort investment to your safety.
In the past, each of the main and last two strikes lasted about 6-8 weeks in length before retracing back along the 1918-1919 period. I would guess economic activity will be restricted to government, hospitals and funeral activities during those periods. So, let's say about 40% of total activity is on during these 2 x 7 weeks periods and that each week of paralised activity means some 2% of the yearly GDP. We should arrive to some 16% anualized GDP contraction on the H1N1 alone. Keeping the current approx. 7% annualized rate of GDP contraction, however, it would still leave the Money Velocity some 12% above where it should be before a bounce is probable by mid 2010. Whatever happens, some improvement should start by second half 2010.
We will be in touch!
Take care my friend,
Luis
P.S. Gráficos históricos
Sincronia das ondas de mortalidade tanto na Europa quanto nos EUA - Principal elemento é a sazonalidade usual das gripes em cada hemisfério.
A mortalidade maior do H1N1 é na população de adultos jovens em função da resposta exacerbada dos sistemas imunológicos sadios ao vírus.
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