Relaxem, o tempo é geométrico, os ciclos definidos. Aproveitem a viagem, cintos apertados e não olhem para baixo (vertigem!).
Saudações de GoldFinger, 1964.
sexta-feira, 29 de maio de 2009
Relax.
Relaxem, o tempo é geométrico, os ciclos definidos. Aproveitem a viagem, cintos apertados e não olhem para baixo (vertigem!).
Saudações de GoldFinger, 1964.
terça-feira, 26 de maio de 2009
Bovespa Ladeira Abaixo.
Autor: Luís Cardiga (26/05/09)
Triangulos não mentem.
Bovespa está com os dias contados no patamar de 50mil pontos. Talvez algumas poucas semanas de sobrevida enquanto a mídia de massa arrecada os últimos soldados/investidores para o massacre de final de ano. A "Bombadinha Fatal" parece estar chegando ao seu fim (ver "Bovespa: A Bombadinha Fatal" de 26/11/08). O Long Bond Americano dá claros sinais de fraqueza, o apetite por novas emissões de capital por parte de empresas cambalidas também parece perder sustentação. Enfim, para onde olharmos, tanto do ponto de vista dos chamados "fundamentos"quanto do ponto de vista técnico, os sinais são inequívocos.
O ano de 2010 surpreenderá com oportunidades ímpares do ponto de vista de valoração de uma infinidade de ativos, entre os quais mercados emergentes como Bovespa. Enquanto isso, afivelem seus capacetes e muita paciência!
Triangulos não mentem.
Bovespa está com os dias contados no patamar de 50mil pontos. Talvez algumas poucas semanas de sobrevida enquanto a mídia de massa arrecada os últimos soldados/investidores para o massacre de final de ano. A "Bombadinha Fatal" parece estar chegando ao seu fim (ver "Bovespa: A Bombadinha Fatal" de 26/11/08). O Long Bond Americano dá claros sinais de fraqueza, o apetite por novas emissões de capital por parte de empresas cambalidas também parece perder sustentação. Enfim, para onde olharmos, tanto do ponto de vista dos chamados "fundamentos"quanto do ponto de vista técnico, os sinais são inequívocos.
O ano de 2010 surpreenderá com oportunidades ímpares do ponto de vista de valoração de uma infinidade de ativos, entre os quais mercados emergentes como Bovespa. Enquanto isso, afivelem seus capacetes e muita paciência!
terça-feira, 12 de maio de 2009
Petróleo: Próxima parada em USD 19.
Autor: Luís Cardiga (12/05/09)
O "Rei" de todas as commodities, petróleo, parece estar fazendo sua despedida dos níveis atuais de preço em USD. Talvez algumas poucas semanas a mais de sobrevida acima de USD 55, mas após isto, o caminho é um só. O próximo e provável ponto de inflexão de tendência se encontra em USD 19, que deverá ser atingido em cerca de 12 meses. Investidores em Petrobrás, hedgers, Real, etc, se posicionem.
terça-feira, 5 de maio de 2009
Dólar: Próxima Parada em R$ 3.00
Autor: Luís Cardiga (05/05/09)
Postado originalmente em 26 de novembro 2008 em "Bovespa: A Bombadinha Fatal".
"...convém lembrar que esta reação será acompanhada de uma recuperação dos preços do petróleo e do complexo commodities o que certamente vai influenciar a paridade do Real diante do USD no curto prazo também (talvez 1 USD / 2.10 Reais). No entanto, mantemos nossas metas..."
domingo, 3 de maio de 2009
H1N1: The Real Crash to Start Soon
Author: Luís Cardiga (3rd May, 2009)
Hello friends!
I also wish I am completely wrong on the H1N1, and completely wrong on the velocity thing as well... but than you have an A+B+C conjecture that leaves you with a minimal probability for otherwise. Kinda sad!
From my early research, H1N1 strikes in three main fatality waves. The point being is that the highest casualities are aged between 14 and 44 years old because of the over reaction of one's strong imunesystem to the Influenza vírus. Therefore, a normal death rate of 3% on the total H1N1 infected population should be twice to three times larger in the infected young adults cohort. Now, about 30% of the total world population should get infected by the H1N1 before its self burn out by second half 2010. By now you can do some math on it and do the appropriate effort investment to your safety.
In the past, each of the main and last two strikes lasted about 6-8 weeks in length before retracing back along the 1918-1919 period. I would guess economic activity will be restricted to government, hospitals and funeral activities during those periods. So, let's say about 40% of total activity is on during these 2 x 7 weeks periods and that each week of paralised activity means some 2% of the yearly GDP. We should arrive to some 16% anualized GDP contraction on the H1N1 alone. Keeping the current approx. 7% annualized rate of GDP contraction, however, it would still leave the Money Velocity some 12% above where it should be before a bounce is probable by mid 2010. Whatever happens, some improvement should start by second half 2010.
We will be in touch!
Take care my friend,
Luis
I also wish I am completely wrong on the H1N1, and completely wrong on the velocity thing as well... but than you have an A+B+C conjecture that leaves you with a minimal probability for otherwise. Kinda sad!
From my early research, H1N1 strikes in three main fatality waves. The point being is that the highest casualities are aged between 14 and 44 years old because of the over reaction of one's strong imunesystem to the Influenza vírus. Therefore, a normal death rate of 3% on the total H1N1 infected population should be twice to three times larger in the infected young adults cohort. Now, about 30% of the total world population should get infected by the H1N1 before its self burn out by second half 2010. By now you can do some math on it and do the appropriate effort investment to your safety.
In the past, each of the main and last two strikes lasted about 6-8 weeks in length before retracing back along the 1918-1919 period. I would guess economic activity will be restricted to government, hospitals and funeral activities during those periods. So, let's say about 40% of total activity is on during these 2 x 7 weeks periods and that each week of paralised activity means some 2% of the yearly GDP. We should arrive to some 16% anualized GDP contraction on the H1N1 alone. Keeping the current approx. 7% annualized rate of GDP contraction, however, it would still leave the Money Velocity some 12% above where it should be before a bounce is probable by mid 2010. Whatever happens, some improvement should start by second half 2010.
We will be in touch!
Take care my friend,
Luis
P.S. Gráficos históricos
Sincronia das ondas de mortalidade tanto na Europa quanto nos EUA - Principal elemento é a sazonalidade usual das gripes em cada hemisfério.
A mortalidade maior do H1N1 é na população de adultos jovens em função da resposta exacerbada dos sistemas imunológicos sadios ao vírus.
sábado, 2 de maio de 2009
Alerta Máximo: Eminent Crash to Strike
Author: Luís Cardiga (May 2nd, 2009)
Hi Adam!
Not really, the mood is not there. To be honest, I have been in a semi-depressed state for quite a few months now just watching the Velocity of Money Graph collapse before my eyes on its way to the lower 1... absolutely scary!!!! It must bounce sometime close to mid 2010 as to catch up with the stablished inflection period, but it must also reach the lower 1 in order to fullfill with the required historical amplitude. In a few words, we are about to see a new crash of unparallel dimensions. A few multidimensional waves need to be aligned and put together in order to cause such an abrupt change in human mass behavior. Something catastrophical (or perceived as) has to trigger such a radical move down (overnight extreme psychological stress to all populations) in such little time. My initial guess for such a fact had been for months a nuclear exchange of some sort... but the likely fact to prove the Velocity graph correct shall be the pandemic Influenza (H1N1) going global.
Stay tunned... study the "Cytokine Storm" reaction to the virus as it strikes young adults the most (strong imunesystems overreaction to the infection). Get yourself top Medical Insurance NOW!
Mexico has been blinking on my radar for quite some time as a source of terror in the web... . Doing some ciclical analysis for the H1N1 development pattern in the northern hemisphere, its first wave strike with whatever death toll rate should happen soon globally. Whatever result from this first strike will retrace for about two months (time people will say it is finished), before exploding exponentially by October. After that it retraces back again for about two months to an upper level similar to that of the first strike before going to the third, relatively milder strike by early next year. One should guess whatever is left of markets and prices by that time. One should be lucky enough to be able to take action by that time.
The Pandemic should strike Brazil on a different schedule (southern hemisphere), but not less lethal. A ciclical pattern should be present here in similar fashion. My guess is that the most appropriate time for the major exponential growth strike (one out of three) is right now, but then the ciclical pattern calls for three main waves, the one in the middle to be some 3X larger than the first one and third one to be about 1.5-2X the first one. I am pondering on this specific timing for the southern hemisphere right now.
Unfortunately, things will get rough beyond your worst guesses. The masses will be caught in desperation and herd into fear like there is no tomorrow as disruptions of all sorts will accompany the vírus trend. To be alive sitting in some gold by then will be a honour! Let's hope for the best my friend.
Take care and stay well!
Luis
Not really, the mood is not there. To be honest, I have been in a semi-depressed state for quite a few months now just watching the Velocity of Money Graph collapse before my eyes on its way to the lower 1... absolutely scary!!!! It must bounce sometime close to mid 2010 as to catch up with the stablished inflection period, but it must also reach the lower 1 in order to fullfill with the required historical amplitude. In a few words, we are about to see a new crash of unparallel dimensions. A few multidimensional waves need to be aligned and put together in order to cause such an abrupt change in human mass behavior. Something catastrophical (or perceived as) has to trigger such a radical move down (overnight extreme psychological stress to all populations) in such little time. My initial guess for such a fact had been for months a nuclear exchange of some sort... but the likely fact to prove the Velocity graph correct shall be the pandemic Influenza (H1N1) going global.
Stay tunned... study the "Cytokine Storm" reaction to the virus as it strikes young adults the most (strong imunesystems overreaction to the infection). Get yourself top Medical Insurance NOW!
Mexico has been blinking on my radar for quite some time as a source of terror in the web... . Doing some ciclical analysis for the H1N1 development pattern in the northern hemisphere, its first wave strike with whatever death toll rate should happen soon globally. Whatever result from this first strike will retrace for about two months (time people will say it is finished), before exploding exponentially by October. After that it retraces back again for about two months to an upper level similar to that of the first strike before going to the third, relatively milder strike by early next year. One should guess whatever is left of markets and prices by that time. One should be lucky enough to be able to take action by that time.
The Pandemic should strike Brazil on a different schedule (southern hemisphere), but not less lethal. A ciclical pattern should be present here in similar fashion. My guess is that the most appropriate time for the major exponential growth strike (one out of three) is right now, but then the ciclical pattern calls for three main waves, the one in the middle to be some 3X larger than the first one and third one to be about 1.5-2X the first one. I am pondering on this specific timing for the southern hemisphere right now.
Unfortunately, things will get rough beyond your worst guesses. The masses will be caught in desperation and herd into fear like there is no tomorrow as disruptions of all sorts will accompany the vírus trend. To be alive sitting in some gold by then will be a honour! Let's hope for the best my friend.
Take care and stay well!
Luis
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